MuCIGREF: multiple computer-interpretable guideline representation and execution framework for managing multimobidity care

Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) supply evidence-based recommendations to healthcare professionals (HCPs) for the care of patients. Their use in clinical practice has many benefits for patients, HCPs and treating medical centres, such as enhancing the quality of care, and reducing unwanted care variations. However, there are many challenges limiting their implementations. Initially, CPGs predominantly consider a specific disease, and only few of them refer to multimorbidity (i.e. the presence of two or more health conditions in an individual) and they are not able to adapt to dynamic changes in patient health conditions. The manual management of guideline recommendations are also challenging since recommendations may adversely interact with each other due to their competing targets and/or they can be duplicated when multiple of them are concurrently applied to a multimorbid patient. These may result in undesired outcomes such as severe disability, increased hospitalisation costs and many others. Formalisation of CPGs into a Computer Interpretable Guideline (CIG) format, allows the guidelines to be interpreted and processed by computer applications, such as Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS). This enables provision of automated support to manage the limitations of guidelines. This thesis introduces a new approach for the problem of combining multiple concurrently implemented CIGs and their interrelations to manage multimorbidity care. MuCIGREF (Multiple Computer-Interpretable Guideline Representation and Execution Framework), is proposed whose specific objectives are to present (1) a novel multiple CIG representation language, MuCRL, where a generic ontology is developed to represent knowledge elements of CPGs and their interrelations, and to create the multimorbidity related associations between them. A systematic literature review is conducted to discover CPG representation requirements and gaps in multimorbidity care management. The ontology is built based on the synthesis of well-known ontology building lifecycle methodologies. Afterwards, the ontology is transformed to a metamodel to support the CIG execution phase; and (2) a novel real-time multiple CIG execution engine, MuCEE, where CIG models are dynamically combined to generate consistent and personalised care plans for multimorbid patients. MuCEE involves three modules as (i) CIG acquisition module, transfers CIGs to the personal care plan based on the patient’s health conditions and to supply CIG version control; (ii) parallel CIG execution module, combines concurrently implemented multiple CIGs by performing concurrency management, time-based synchronisation (e.g., multi-activity merging), modification, and timebased optimisation of clinical activities; and (iii) CIG verification module, checks missing information, and inconsistencies to support CIG execution phases. Rulebased execution algorithms are presented for each module. Afterwards, a set of verification and validation analyses are performed involving real-world multimorbidity cases studies and comparative analyses with existing works. The results show that the proposed framework can combine multiple CIGs and dynamically merge, optimise and modify multiple clinical activities of them involving patient data. This framework can be used to support HCPs in a CDSS setting to generate unified and personalised care recommendations for multimorbid patients while merging multiple guideline actions and eliminating care duplications to maintain their safety and supplying optimised health resource management, which may improve operational and cost efficiency in real world-cases, as well

Effect on life expectancy of temporal sequence in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure among 1·7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up: a retrospective cohort study using linked data

BACKGROUND: To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical-mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile). FINDINGS: Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0-65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased. INTERPRETATION: The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death. FUNDING: Health Data Research UK

Effect on life expectancy of temporal sequence in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure among 1·7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up : a retrospective cohort study using linked data

Funding: This work was supported by Health Data Research UK (HDRUK) Measuring and Understanding Multimorbidity using Routine Data in the UK (MUrMuRUK; award numbers HDR-9006 and CFC0110). HDRUK is funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, NIHR (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust. This work also was co-funded by the MRC and NIHR (grant number MR/S027750/1). The work was supported by the Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales programme of work, part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1). RKO is supported by a Springboard award (SBF006\1122) funded by the Academy of Medical Sciences, Wellcome Trust, Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, British Heart Foundation, and Diabetes UK. SS is part funded by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West Midlands, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Gastrointestinal Infections, and the NIHR HPRU in Genomics and Enabling Data.Background To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical–mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile). Findings Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0–65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased. Interpretation The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Clustering long-term health conditions among 67728 people with multimorbidity using electronic health records in Scotland

Funding: CMC: This work was supported by Health Data Research UK (HDR UK) Measuring and Understanding Multimorbidity using Routine Data in the UK (HDR-9006; CFC0110). Health Data Research UK (HDR-9006) is funded by: UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust.There is still limited understanding of how chronic conditions co-occur in patients with multimorbidity and what are the consequences for patients and the health care system. Most reported clusters of conditions have not considered the demographic characteristics of these patients during the clustering process. The study used data for all registered patients that were resident in Fife or Tayside, Scotland and aged 25 years or more on 1st January 2000 and who were followed up until 31st December 2018. We used linked demographic information, and secondary care electronic health records from 1st January 2000. Individuals with at least two of the 31 Elixhauser Comorbidity Index conditions were identified as having multimorbidity. Market basket analysis was used to cluster the conditions for the whole population and then repeatedly stratified by age, sex and deprivation. 318,235 individuals were included in the analysis, with 67,728 (21·3%) having multimorbidity. We identified five distinct clusters of conditions in the population with multimorbidity: alcohol misuse, cancer, obesity, renal failure, and heart failure. Clusters of long-term conditions differed by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation, with some clusters not present for specific strata and others including additional conditions. These findings highlight the importance of considering demographic factors during both clustering analysis and intervention planning for individuals with multiple long-term conditions. By taking these factors into account, the healthcare system may be better equipped to develop tailored interventions that address the needs of complex patients.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Impact on life expectancy of temporal sequencing in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure using linked data for 1.7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up

Funding: This work was supported by Health Data Research UK (HDRUK) Measuring and Understanding Multimorbidity using Routine Data in the UK (MUrMuRUK; award numbers HDR-9006 and CFC0110). HDRUK is funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, NIHR (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust. This work also was co-funded by the MRC and NIHR (grant number MR/S027750/1). The work was supported by the Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales programme of work, part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1). RKO is supported by a Springboard award (SBF006\1122) funded by the Academy of Medical Sciences, Wellcome Trust, Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, British Heart Foundation, and Diabetes UK. SS is part funded by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West Midlands, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Gastrointestinal Infections, and the NIHR HPRU in Genomics and Enabling Data.Background To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical–mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile). Findings Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0–65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased. Interpretation The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Clustering long-term health conditions among 67728 people with multimorbidity using electronic health records in Scotland.

Acknowledgements: We acknowledge the support of the Health Informatics Centre, University of Dundee for managing and supplying the anonymised data and NHS Tayside and Fife for the original data source. This work uses data provided by patients and collected by the NHS as part of their care and support.Funder: National Institute for Health Research (England)Funder: Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care DirectoratesFunder: Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government)Funder: Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland)Funder: British Heart Foundation; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000274Funder: Wellcome Trust; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269There is still limited understanding of how chronic conditions co-occur in patients with multimorbidity and what are the consequences for patients and the health care system. Most reported clusters of conditions have not considered the demographic characteristics of these patients during the clustering process. The study used data for all registered patients that were resident in Fife or Tayside, Scotland and aged 25 years or more on 1st January 2000 and who were followed up until 31st December 2018. We used linked demographic information, and secondary care electronic health records from 1st January 2000. Individuals with at least two of the 31 Elixhauser Comorbidity Index conditions were identified as having multimorbidity. Market basket analysis was used to cluster the conditions for the whole population and then repeatedly stratified by age, sex and deprivation. 318,235 individuals were included in the analysis, with 67,728 (21·3%) having multimorbidity. We identified five distinct clusters of conditions in the population with multimorbidity: alcohol misuse, cancer, obesity, renal failure, and heart failure. Clusters of long-term conditions differed by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation, with some clusters not present for specific strata and others including additional conditions. These findings highlight the importance of considering demographic factors during both clustering analysis and intervention planning for individuals with multiple long-term conditions. By taking these factors into account, the healthcare system may be better equipped to develop tailored interventions that address the needs of complex patients